US equities are back to flat and the dollar and yen are broadly bid on rising risk aversion. The worst victim at the moment is oil, which is down $2.44 to $66.26 as the bulls throw in the towel after OPEC cut demand forecasts today.
Bonds are bid despite a three-year sale today that will be closely watched.
Shares of Oracle are the big winner today, up 13% after some very bullish commentary on AI demand and the long cycle but that hasn’t translated to NVDA, which is up just 0.5%.
The broader market is likely looking at the signals from oil and China’s import data and worried about the macro side of the equation. The Fed can assuage some of that with a 50 bps cut but the market is giving that just a 29% chance at the moment. A soft inflation report tomorrow could help but those risks are two-sided with some prices rising recently.