Weaker flash PMI data sent the EURUSD and GBPUSD sharply lower in the European session, but while the GBPUSD retraced all this declines, the EURUSD remains lower.
Technically,, the EURUSD fell below its 100 hour moving average of 1.11382. Recall on Thursday and Friday of last week, the price based against that moving average and bounced higher. That was not the case in trading today. The momentum lower took the price below its rising 200-hour moving average of 1.11058, but has since bounced back above that level. So the price of the EURUSD is trading below its 100 hour moving average of 1.1138. I would expect sellers to lean against that level on a rebound. On the downside, getting back below the 200 hour moving average of 1.11058 is need to increase the bearish bias. Dip buyers in the EURUSD and look to buy against that level with a stop on a break below.
The USDJPY on Friday and again today extended toward the 50% midpoint of the range going back to January 2023. That midpoint level comes in at 144.581. The high price from Friday reached 144.49. The high price today reached 144.45 and rotated back to the downside. The price low today did fall below another 50% level of the September trading range and 143.35, but snapped back higher. Getting below 143.385 is needed to increase the bearish bias today going forward.
As mentioned above, the GBPUSD also moved lower after data this morning, but for that pair, the rising 100 hour MA was tested but not broken. The 100-hour moving average currently comes in at 1.32475. The low price for the day stalled right above that level (got within 4 pips of the MA at the time of the dip). That kept the buyers in play in the price has since moved back to a new high for the day. The high price from Friday at 1.33377 is within sight. A break above that level would take the price to the highest level going back to 2022. There is a swing high going back to 2021/2022 at 1.3358. Get above that of opens the door for further upside momentum.