Dissent to half-point cut warranted by inflation still above target, “measured pace of cuts more appropriate”
Core inflation remains uncomfortably above 2% target with upside risks given ongoing growth in spending, wages
Recalibrating policy appropriate given progress on inflation, but should not declare victory yet
Upside risks to inflation still “prominent,” including supply chain fragility, fiscal policy, mismatch of housing supply and demand
Though labor market has shown signs of cooling, wage growth, spending and GDP “not consistent” with a material economic weakening
There are still more jobs than available workers
Rise in unemployment largely due to slowed hiring and improving supply
“Considerable” pent-up demand and available cash ready to be used as interest rate falls, a risk to meeting inflation goal
Estimate of neutral rate “much higher” than before pandemic, policy not as restrictive as it may seem.
Bowman dissented to the 50 basis point cut, preferring to cut by 25 basis points. She does see a need to recalibrate, but other comments are much more hawkish. I do not see her changing her spots anytime soon.