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EUR/USD threatens the August high as dollar stays more vulnerable on the week

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The greenback fell sharply in trading yesterday, not helped by some softer data out of the US. In case you missed it:

These aren’t major releases but little by little, it all starts to point to a weaker economic picture in the US. And that sentiment isn’t helped when you get Fed watcher Timiraos coming up with these sort of reports here.

Anyway, EUR/USD is now trading up closer towards the 1.1200 mark again with the high today at 1.1198.

EUR/USD daily chart

The figure level arrested the run higher in August, so that is a key level to watch on the charts for the remainder of this week. Adding to the technical picture will be key resistance from the 100-month moving average as well, seen at 1.1220 currently. Then, there is also the 2023 high at 1.1275 – which was held back by the 100-month moving average itself and 61.8 Fib retracement of the swing lower from 2021 to 2022 at 1.1275 as well.

EUR/USD monthly chart

Traders might be contemplating an ECB rate cut for next month but the dollar side of the equation has been a tailwind for EUR/USD since the Fed last week. That especially with short-term Treasury yields staying under pressure. 2-year yields have now fallen to 3.52% and that’s the lowest in over two years.

If US economic data continues to support the case for a soft-er landing, that will keep up the dollar pressure for now it would seem.

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