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New Zealand Treasury don’t expect activity to have picked up much in the latest quarter

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Treasury says that while the June quarter GDP fell, more recent evidence suggests we are at or near the bottom of the economic cycle:

  • June quarter GDP fell by 0.2%, less than expected, with population growth masking economic weakness.

But,, its not a lock … Treasury go on to say that while interest rates began to ease, activity has likely remained flat through the September quarter with no firm sign of a recovery just yet.

And add to keep an eye out:

  • With a significant amount of data due in the next fortnight, we should know more about where we are at in the cycle.

Other points:

  • Consumer and business expectations are improving, indicating a potential economic bottoming.
  • The current account deficit remained high at 6.7% of GDP due to slow recovery in service exports and strong import volumes.
  • OECD forecasts stable global growth, with easing inflation and supportive policies in China and the U.S.
  • U.S. and China implemented policy easing to support their economies

Earlier:

NZD/USD is little net changed on the day so far, around 0.6342

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