S&P 500 futures are pointing modestly lower today but it’s been the best year-to-date run through three quarters since 1997. That year the market ran up nearly 30% as it was hyped by a technological breakthrough (sound familiar?) and a surprisingly strong economy.
What happened next? The market eeked out a Q4 gain but it wasn’t easy. Stocks sold off in October before recovering in November and December. That was followed by incredible three-year run as the dot-com bubble inflated.
SPX in 1997
Another year that was historically strong through the first three quarters was 2019 and the parallel with that year is that the Fed pivoted to cutting rates. With that, the index had run-up nearly as much as this year.
What happened next?
Again, there was a rough start to October but it quickly turned and the index added 8.5% in Q4.
Yahoo Finance highlights some of the best and worst years over the past 30 years.