In this video, I take a look at 2 of the commodity pairs from the Asia-Pacific area. Both the NZDUSD and the AUDUSD are trading lower today breaking support targets on the way, but each is also reaching support targets and finding some buyers against the levels. What next for each?
NZDUSD: The downside in the NZDUSD continued today after breaking away from its 100 hour moving average and 200-hour moving average yesterday (currently at 0.6305 and 0.62999). In trading today, a swing area near 0.6253 was broken, followed by its 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.6245 and the 50% midpoint of the move up from the September low at 0.62407. The 50% and 100 bar MA on 4-hour are now a risk/bias-defining area on the topside. Staying below keeps the sellers in control..
On the downside, the momentum lower took the price below its 200 bar moving average on a 4-hour chart at 0.62188, but found support buyers nearly 61.8% retracement at 0.62088. Buyers leaned against the 61.8% retracement and had pushed the price modestly higher. If the sellers are to exert more and more control, getting below these levels increases the bearish bias.
PS The RBNZ meets next week and the expectations are leaning toward a 50 basis point cut
AUDUSD: The AUDUSD yesterday stalled ahead of its 200 hour moving average (green line on the chart above currently at 0.6880). In trading today, that moving average was broken in the Asian session and it helped to start a step-down process in the AUDUSD.
The momentum to the downside has now taken the price to a swing area target near 0.6838. Although the price has fallen below that level, it felt short of a better support level at the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 11 low. That level comes in at 0.6819. The rising 100 bar moving average on the 4- hour chart is near that level at 0.6814 currently.
If the sellers are to take more control, they need to get below 0.6838 and ultimately below the 38.2% retracement at 0.6819 as well. On the topside, resistance now will be eyed near 0.6869.