While the USDCHF pushes the topside of the “Red Box” today that has confined the pair going back to August 20, the EURCHF is mired within its own confined range.
Apart for a time period between April 10 and April 11, the price of the EURCHF has been confined to a range between 0.9332 and 0.9498. Looking at the 4-hour chart above, the ups and downs have met buyers near the low of that area, and sellers near the high at that area. Traders are waiting for a break and a run outside of the “Red Box”.
In between those extremes, sits the now converged 100 and 200-hour moving averages which are currently at 0.9418. The 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high to the early August low is just above that level at 0.94248.
In trading today, the high price has stalled against those moving averages in the Asian/early European session. That helps to keep the sellers more in control.
Should the price move above those moving averages – and stay above those moving averages – the short-term bias would shift more to the upside. Absent that, and the sellers are still holding the control.