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It’s mid-week and eyes remain on China as it sorts itself out following the holiday ramp. Shanghai shares fell 6.6% but officials teased a weekend announcement: Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fo’an is set to hold a press conference on Saturday at 10 am local time to discuss the country’s plans for intensifying countercyclical adjustments to its fiscal policy. The briefing aims to outline strategies for promoting high-quality economic development, according to the invitation.
The highlight of the day comes at 2 pm ET with the FOMC minutes from the September meeting where they cut by 50 bps. Earlier today, Williams said he would still support at 50 bps cut based on what he knows now. The market isn’t so sure as it prices in a 16% chance the Fed holds in November.
I struggle to see the Minutes as a market mover but it won’t be the only Fedspeak today with Logan (9:15 am ET), Goolsbee (10:30 am ET) and Barkin (12:15 pm ET).
Post-market, we will get Costco’s September sales report and that could shed light on the consumer. We will also be watching Hurricane Milton, which will make landfall overnight.