The USDCHF broke higher after the stronger than expected US jobs report on Friday. The break took the price above the high of the “Red Box” that had confined the pair going back to August 20.
On Monday and into yesterday, the price rotated back to the downside and in the process reentered that”Red Box”. However, the low price yesterday DID stall near the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the end of September low and also the 100 hour moving average (see blue line on the chart below).
KEY: Going forward, the Red Box, MUST hold if the buyers are to stay in control. The rising 100 hour MA at 0.8553 is a close support.
On the topside, the high from last Friday at 0.86072 Wednesday next target to get to and through followed by the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high at 0.86313 is the minimum target to get to and through to show that the buyers are serious about moving this pair higher. Absent that and although the price is higher, although the price is outside the Red Box, the buyers are really not taking back control. The sellers are still winning. So watch that retracement level at 0.86313 as a key barometer for both buyers and sellers.