Fed’s Logan
- Less-restrictive policy will still cool inflation
- Recent inflation data is very welcome
I think that’s a very good point in the headline that too many people are missing in pricing in a November pause. Logan is a hawk too.
Over at Bloomberg, Joseph Brusuelas highlights his upcoming PCE inflation forecast:
Following the September CPI & PPI we are forecasting a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the PCE & a decline to 2.1% on a year ago basis. We expect the core to increase 0.2% and 2.6%. This supports a quicker pace of rate cuts back to neutral.
There is no need for the Fed to be at 4.75-5.00%.
My main worry for 2025 is that we get a spike in oil prices and that re-ignites inflation but there’s an obvious way to hedge that.