- China Q3 GDP seen at +1.0% q/q
- China Q3 GDP seen at +4.5% y/y
- China 2024 GDP growth seen at 4.8% (previously 5.0% in July poll)
- China 2025 GDP growth seen at 4.5%
Economists are pointing to weaker consumption activity as the main drag. And even with improvements set to follow in Q4 amid a raft of stimulus measures, it’s still not enough to convince of 2024 GDP hitting the target of 5% set out by Beijing.
Officially, China last missed its growth target back in 2022 as the impact of the Covid pandemic continued to reverberate.
As for Q3, the 4.5% year-on-year growth will be a step down from the 4.7% figure in Q2. And it would also represent the weakest such growth since Q1 2023.
We will be getting the official figures later this week on Friday.
In the bigger picture, come what may, you can believe that China will find some way to work the figures to get to the 5% mark for the year surely. It won’t be the first time and it won’t be the last.