The economic calendar was light with Import/export prices the only releases in the US. Import prices fell -0.4% vs -0.2% estimate. Export prices fell more with a decline of -0.7% vs -0.4%.
- Import prices YoY moved back into negative terrritory,at -0.1% vs +0.8% last month which was the first 12-month drop since February 2024.
- Export prices fell -2.1% year over year. That was the largest 12- month increase since January 2024.
Fed officials were conspicuously absent as well.
Tomorrow things heat up with retail sales , unemployment claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index leading a slew of announcement. Below is a summary of the releases:
8:30 am:
- Core Retail Sales m/m: Forecast 0.1%, Previous 0.1%
- Retail Sales m/m: Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.1%
- Unemployment Claims: Forecast 241K, Previous 258K
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Forecast 4.2, Previous 1.7
9:15 am:
- Capacity Utilization Rate: Forecast 77.9%, Previous 78.0%
- Industrial Production m/m: Forecast -0.1%, Previous 0.8%
10:00 am:
- Business Inventories m/m: Forecast 0.3%, Previous 0.4%
- NAHB Housing Market Index: Forecast 43, Previous 41
Today, the day is ending with the CAD the strongest of the majors followed by the USD. The GBP is the weakest. CPI data the UK push the pound lower. The CAD rose despite the RBC report showing that the job market poses bigger risk to Canadian economy, and cardholder spending data was “nothing short of abysmal”.
In defense of the gain in the CAD, the USDCAD has moved up for nine consecutive days and over 400 pips over that time (yesterday the price moved lower).
Today, sellers continue to probe to the downside after falling below its 100-hour moving average (currently at 1.3778). There is close support at the broken 61.8% retracement level at 1.37449, and below that at the low price from last Friday after the better-than-expected Canadian job report at 1.3724. The rising 200-hour moving average is moving toward that level and 1.37135 currently. It would take a move below all those levels to increase the bearish bias and control. Absent that, and the buyers are still in play.
The EURUSD today fell below its 200-day moving average ahead of the ECB rate decision tomorrow. The expectations are for a 25 basis point cut to 3.40% from 3.65% when the rate decision is announced and 8:15 AM ET. The 200-day moving average comes in at 1.08728. It would now take a move above that level and also the 1.0900 level (and stay above) to lead to more upside corrective probing. Absent that, and the sellers remain more in control.
In the US stock market, the major indices rebounded after yesterday’s declines:
- After declines of -324.80 points in the Dow yesterday, it retraced all those declines and closed higher by 337.28 points or 0.79% at 43077.70
- S &P index fell -44.59 points or -0.76% at 5815.26 yesterday. Today the index rose 27.21 points or 0.47% to 5842.47
- Nasdaq index fell -187.10 or -1.01% and 18315.59 yesterday. Today, the index clawed back 51.49 points or 0.28% to 18367.08.
The small-cap Russell 2000 surged 36.85 points or 1.64% at 2286.67. Yesterday the Russell 2000 we can a 1.17 point gain.
In the US debt market yields were steady but down on the day:
- 2 year yield 3.943%, -1.2 basis points
- 5-year yield 3.847%, -1.4 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.018%, -2.0 basis points.
- 30 year yield 4.301%, -2.7 basis points