Fundamental
Overview
The US Dollar has been
gaining ground across the board this week despite the lack of economic data and
lower Treasury yields, essentially moving forward by inertia.
Stanley Druckenmiller said
in an interview yesterday that the market is already positioning for a Trump
victory given the moves in some stocks like DJT for example.
That could explain the
recent USD strength as it should appreciate on higher growth and less rate cuts
expectations. Nevertheless, not all markets have been in sync with this view,
so it could be just noise.
For now, we can only work
with data and today we get the US retail sales and jobless claims figures which
will likely be market moving. The key events though will be in November when we
get the October data and the US election.
USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
USDJPY Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY is probing once again above the 149.40 level with the buyers
trying to extend the rally into the 152.00 handle. The price action remains
pretty choppy but we can expect the sellers to step back in if the price were
to fall below the 149.40 level.
USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
USDJPY 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action which has been showing a slowing down
in the bullish momentum ahead of the 150.00 handle. There’s not much we can
glean from this chart as the rangebound price action around the key 149.40
level makes it harder to find clean levels where to lean onto.
USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
USDJPY 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the 149.40 level is acting as kind of a barometer with the price staying
above it being more bullish and below it being more bearish. Today we get the
US retail sales and jobless claims figures which should be market moving. The
red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we have the US Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims data, while tomorrow
we conclude with the Japanese CPI.