Fundamental
Overview
The lack of catalysts recently
kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in momentum.
The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of November when we
will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US elections.
There’s been also a good
argument that the markets are already positioning for a Trump victory and that
should translate in USD strength as it should appreciate on higher growth and
less rate cuts expectations. Nevertheless, not all markets have been in sync
with this view.
USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
USDJPY Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY is bouncing around the 149.40 level with the 150.00 handle
acting as a ceiling. The buyers will want to see the price breaking above the
150.00 handle to start targeting the 152.00 handle next, while the sellers will
look for a break below the 149.00 handle to position for a pullback into the
147.22 level.
USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
USDJPY 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action which has been showing a slowing down
in the bullish momentum ahead of the 150.00 handle. There’s not much we can
glean from this chart as the choppy price action around the 149.40 level makes
it hard to find clean levels where to lean onto.
USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
USDJPY 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price probed below the minor upward trendline
overnight but eventually bounced back above it. We now have a counter-trendline
where the sellers will likely lean onto to position for a drop into new lows.
The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into
the 152.00 handle. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
This week is pretty empty on the data front with market moving releases scheduled
for the latter part of the week. On Thursday, we get the Flash Japanese and US
PMIs, and the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with
the Tokyo CPI report.