What are the key technical levels in play as the North American session begins? and why?
EURUSD: The EURUSD hit the swing area support yesterday between 1.07609 to 1.07767 and found willing buyers. The price has pushed higher since then rebreaking above a swing level at 1.0810, the broken 61.8% of the move up from the April 2024 low at 1.08347 and toward the key cluster of resistance defined by the:
- 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.0865
- 200 day MA at 1.08685
- Swing area from 1.0869 to 1.08725
The high price reached 1.0859 and has rotated back lower. I spoke to this dynamic in the video posted late yesterday:
USDJPY: The USDJPY moved up to test the high from Monday during yesterday’s session. The level also corresponded with a high going back to July 31 before rotating lower. The price rotated lower. The low price today has reached 152.77. The low for the week reached 152.40. There is swing support between 151.85 to 151.937 and the 200 day MA at 151.486. Those are the support targets that if broken incrementally adds to the sellers short-term control.
With lots of stuff ahead including earnings, unemployment, BOJ, PCE, US election, Fed, the support is down to the 200 day MA 151.48 and resistance is up to 153.88. Break outside that range and expect momentum in the direction of the break.
GBPUSD: The buyers in the GBPUSD took the price above the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart earlier today. That falied and the price has been trending lower since that failure. The price has since moved below the cluster of MAs including the:
- 200 hour MA at 1.29838
- 100 hour MA at 1.2977
- 100 day MA at 1.29745
The current price trades at 1.29647. Stay below the cluster of MAs is more bearish.
The 61.8% of the move up from the up from the August low at 1.2958 stalled the fall yesterday and is the next downside target to get below to add to the bearish bias. The 1.2938 level has a history as a swing level as well and stalled the fall early on Monday morning.
USDCHF: The USDCHF over the last 10 days is up and down higher with the pair between 0.8630 to 0.86995. In between, sits the 100/200 hour MA and the 100-day MA . There is ups and downs. Traders are waiting for the next shove.
USDCAD: The USDCAD is trending higher. Most of the trend has been staying above the 100 hour MA over the month of October. Yes, there were dips below, but never low enough to go below the lower 200-hour MA. The 100-hour MA is at 1.38837. The current price is at 1.3924 and is focused on the high for 2024 at 1.39458.
If you want to see the full picture watch the video below:
AUDUSD: Like the USDCAD, the AUDUSD has been trending (for it to the downside – both are higher USD). For the AUDUSD, last week (on Monday), the price did correct above the falling 200 hour MA (green line), but failed and restarted the fall lower. Yes, there were moves above the 100 hour MA, but going forward, it will take a move above both to give the buyers some added confidence. Absent that and the sellers are still in control and they can continue to move lower.