The Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge is a privately surveyed inflation indicator. it was the ‘go to’ for a guide to monthly inflation data for Australia prior to the Australian Bureau of Statistics introducing their monthly measure.
For October 2024:
- +0.3% m/m (prior +0.1%)
- +3.0% y/y (prior +2.6%)
Trimmed mean is the ‘core’ measure of inflation:
- +0.1% m/m
- +2.7% y/y ( a huge jump from +2.2% in the previous month)
The jump will not be welcome news to the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The Gauge is not a definitive guide to inflation, but a rise of this magnitude, both m/m and y/y, will not be shrugged off. Analysts are currently clustered around a February RBA rate cut expectation. Market pricing is for the first cut around May, instead.
Current rates from the RBA webioste.
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ps The Bank meets this week, November 4 and 5.
No rate cut is expected: