It’s election week.
It doesn’t get any bigger than this in US politics and polls show this will be a razor-tight race. At this time last week, Trump looked to have an edge but some polling numbers over the weekend upended that and highlighted the possibility that Harris is being underestimated.
None of it leaves anyone particularly confident and betting sites are split.
The shift towards Harris on the weekend had seemingly put a bid into bonds, with 10-year yields down 7 bps to 4.29% and USD/JPY down 105 pips.
S&P 500 futures are up 5 points and the lone notable economic data is factory orders at 10 am ET. We’re in the calm before the storm now.