The first exit poll from Edison Research is out and it focuses on the demographics of voters:
- 53% of voters women vs 52% in 2020
- 71% white vs 67% in 2020
- 57% no college degree vs 59% in 2020
- 45% said personal finances were worse than 4 years ago vs 20% in 2020
- 31% said economy mattered most for their vote, 11% immigration, 14% abortion, 35% democracy, 4% foreign policy
- 44% view Trump favorably vs 46% in 2020
- 48% view Harris favorably vs Biden at 52% in 2020
- Pennsylvania poll shows 46% view Trump favorably vs 48% in 2020
- Pennsylvania: 46% viewed Harris favorably vs 50% for Biden in 2020
There are a lot of numbers here and you can spin them either way. I haven’t seen any notable market reaction. If I had to lean, these numbers should help Trump this time around, particularly the ones in Pennsylvania.
Preliminary results of Wisconsin exit poll:
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- 47% of voters view Harris favorably, compared to Biden’s 50% in 2020 exit poll
- 44% of voters view Trump favorably, vs 43% in 2020 exit poll
- 84% of voters were white vs 86% in 2020 exit poll, 6% were black vs 6% in 2020, 5% were Hispanic vs 4% in 2020
Preliminary results of Nevada exit poll:
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- 44% of voters view Harris favorably, compared to Biden’s 52% in 2020 exit poll
- 47% of voters view Trump favorably, vs 48% in 2020 exit poll
- 66% of voters were white vs 65% in 2020 exit poll, 8% were black vs 7% in 2020, 17% were Hispanic vs 17% in 2020
Preliminary results of Michigan exit poll:
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- 48% of voters view Harris favorably, compared to Biden’s 51% in 2020 exit poll
- 45% of voters view Trump favorably, vs 45% in 2020 exit poll
- 79% of voters were white vs 81% in 2020 exit poll, 11% were black vs 12% in 2020, 6% were Hispanic vs 3% in 2020
Preliminary results of Georgia exit poll:
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- 49% of voters view Harris favorably, compared to Biden’s 50% in 2020 exit poll
- 46% of voters view Trump favorably, vs 46% in 2020 exit poll
- 57% of voters were white vs 61% in 2020 exit poll, 30% were black vs 29% in 2020, 8% were Hispanic vs 7% in 2020
Preliminary results of North Carolina exit poll:
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- 48% of voters view Harris favorably, compared to Biden’s 50% in 2020 exit poll
- 43% of voters view Trump favorably, vs 47% in 2020 exit poll
- 69% of voters were white vs 65% in 2020 exit poll, 19% were black vs 23% in 2020, 8% were Hispanic vs 5% in 2020