Earlier today, I highlighted that Harris was running better in Sullivan county in Indiana, which was one of the first counties to report. Well now, with 98% of the votes counted, Trump is running better than he did in 2020 by about 1 point. That’s a good sign for the former President and you can see Trump trades show some optimism in the market.
2020
2024
The lesson from the earlier votes showing Harris is that mail-in votes are often counted first, and those favor Harris. But election day voting favors Trump, so there can be an illusion of Harris strength.
All that said, the suburban numbers are still running stronger for Harris vs Biden on a few fronts, so we could be seeing a stronger urban-rural skew. Intuitively that makes sense.