Preliminary results of Nevada exit poll:
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- Trump wins 52% of voters age 65+, Harris wins 45%; Trump share down 1 pt from 2020
- Trump wins 58% of white male voters, Harris wins 39%; Trump share down 1 pt from 2020
- Trump wins 54% of white voters, Harris wins 43%; Trump share down 2 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 43% of women voters, Harris wins 53%; Trump share down 1 pt from 2020
- Trump wins 43% of voters with college degrees, Harris wins 55%; Trump share down 1 pt from 2020
- Trump wins 53% of voters without college degrees, Harris wins 43%; Trump share up 3 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 49% of white women voters, Harris wins 48%; Trump share down 4 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 52% of voters age 45+, Harris wins 45%; Trump share down 3 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 45% of voters under age 45, Harris wins 51%; Trump share up 6 pts from 2020
- Trump wins 48% of Hispanic voters, Harris wins 48%; Trump share up 11 pts from 2020
Biden won Nevada 50% to 47.6% so there is some space but the North Carolina exit poll seems to indicate that Trump voters are under-sampled.
Given how things are shaking down, Nevada is unlikely to matter as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are critical for Democrats and they would need to take all three.
Remember the NYT needle was pointing Trump past midnight in 2020, and favored Hillary until 11PM in 16.