One of the clearest Trump trades is selling the Mexican peso and it’s a runaway move today, similar (though at a much smaller magnitude) to what happened in 2016 when Trump beat Clinton.
That night, USD/MXN rose to 19.8 from 18.3. It continued the following day at 20.4.
Today it’s up about 0.5 points, to 20.7 from 20.2.
USD/MXN daily
The direction of the move clearly highlights which way the market thinks this election will go. But the smaller magnitude of the move shows that it’s less of a surprise than last time. Trump has promised big tariffs and another renegotiation of the USMCA.