The major indices are set to open mixed/lower after the broader S&P and Nasdaq closed at record levels. The indices are up strongly this week as the market cheer the Trump victory along with a Fed that cut rates and is favored to cut in December too.
Yields are lower today to start the US session with the 2 year down -2.5 bps. The 10 year yield is down -3.9 bps. Yesterday, yield dipped as well after the run up on the Trump win on Wednesday. If I asked are yield higher or lower this week would you say lower? On Friday a week ago, the 10 year yield was at 4.386. The yield today is at 4.306%.
Crude oil is lower by -$1.22 or -1.74% at $71.15
EURUSD: The EURUSD moved higher yesterday and sniffed the falling 100-hour MA, but found willing sellers. Going forward, getting above 100-hour MA and the 200 hour MA is needed to increase the bullish bias.
The fall extended today and pushed down to a swing area between 1.07609 to 1.07767. That swing area will be a barometer today. Move below and the bias to the downside increases with the price moving toward the lows from the election.
USDJPY: The 100 and 200-hour MA was tested and broken yesterday but rallied back higher in the early Asian session. The price moved up to test the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the July 2024 high at 153.397. Staying below, kept the sellers in play and when the price pushed below the 100 and 200-hour MAs again, the selling increased. On the downside, there is a swing area and also the 200-day MA at 151.67. Earlier this week, the price did fall below the 200-day MA, but failed. That MA remains a key barometer today and going forward.
GBPUSD:The GBPUSD story is about a cluster of MAs starting with the 100 day MA above at 1.29921 and the 100 hour MA below at 1.29486. Below the 100 hour MA is another close level that I have been speaking to. That level comes in at 1.2938. That is being tested at the lows and I see breaking that level as a step needed to increase the bearish bias, and the sellers confidence. The good news for the sellers is that at the highs yesterday, the buyers had their shot after breaking the 100 day MA. They missed and failed. Today, the 100-day MA stalled the early Asian high giving the sellers control. So now with the MAs being broken but not the 1.2938, the sellers are making a play. Will they be successful or fail? That is the decision by the market today and going forward.
USDCHF:The USDCHF has continued the move lower today that started yesterday, and returned to a key target defined at the 38.2% of the move down from the May 2024 swing high. That retracement level comes in at 0.8698. The rising 100-hour MA is now at that level too increasing the levels importance.
That level will be a key level that needs to get to and through to increase the bearish bias not only today but going forward.
So far today, the level has stalled the fall and the price is back up at 0.87228. The high for the day becomes the next target near 0.8738, but more importantly for traders is if the 38.2%/100 hour MA holds. If it does, the upside move can continue.
USDCAD: The Canada jobs report will be released at the bottom of the hour. Locked and loaded with Canadian bacon today. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.6% from 6.5%. The Employment change is est 25K vs 46.7K last month. Last month the Full time rose 112.0K. The Part time fell -65K.
Technically, on the downside the swing area between 1.3833 to 1.3847 is support. Move below would target 1.3813. On the topside, the price is retesting the 200-hour MA at 1.3903. The 100-hour MA is at 1.38912. The best case for the bulls is to stay above those MAs. More conservative bulls can give it to the 100 bar MA at 1.3865 now that the price has moved higher and above those levels today. Buyers have the edge going into the data.
AUDUSD: The AUDUSD is lower and testing a swing area between 0.66189 to 0.6629. The 200-day MA is at 0.6629. The best case for the shorts now is to stay below that MA. On the downside, there is other MAs including at 0.66239, the 100-hour MA at 0.66117, and then the 200-hour MA at 0.65914. Each need to be broken to increase the bearish bias.