Fundamental
Overview
Last week, despite the higher-than-expected
inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the US Dollar couldn’t extend the
gains. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by
the end of 2025.
This might be a signal that
the market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need stronger
reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could open the door for some
pullbacks and general US Dollar weakness.
USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
USDJPY Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY pulled back to the major trendline.
This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the
trendline to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into
the 152.00 support.
USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
USDJPY 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with some consolidation now around the
trendline. There’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce
and a rally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to
target the 152.00 support.
USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
USDJPY 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see even better the recent price action with multiple spikes below the
trendline. Again, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will look for
a bounce and the sellers for a break. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
This
week is pretty empty on the data front with the most important releases scheduled
for the latter part of the week. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the Japanese and US
PMIs.