Catching up on this from Bank of America Securites.
Analysts there are bullish on the US economy, seeing resilience, added signs of growth in productivity:
- thus see higher economic growth
- see high-for-longer interest rates, forecast a higher Fed terminal rate at 4%.
BoA are wary of uncertainty around the incoming Trump administration. The analysts assess that policy changes will tend to drive inflation higher but negative impacts on growth should be cancelled out by positive impacts:
- think downside risks to growth are larger for the rest of the world than for the U.S.
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The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is December 17-18. For 2025: