ANZ highlights that the upcoming RBNZ meeting is unlikely to spark a positive shift for the NZD. Market expectations of a 50bp rate cut align with ongoing dovish policy trends, keeping downside pressure on the NZD against the USD and AUD. While year-end seasonality could provide some upside, near-term prospects remain neutral to negative.
Key Points:
Conclusion:
ANZ remains neutral to negative on the NZD heading into the November RBNZ meeting. While a 50bp rate cut is expected to have a limited impact, the dovish policy outlook and weak economic data keep downside risks intact. Any potential NZD upside into year-end will likely be constrained by the challenging market backdrop.
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