The USD has moved lower with lower yields as DeepSeek send stocks lower and tariff wars don’t help either.
In the video I take a look at the three major currencies – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – as they react with a move lower in the USD (EURUSD and GBPUSD move higher and the USDJPY moves lower). The moves have led to technical breaks that have tilted the bias in the direction of the break:
- EURUSD: The EURUSD moved lower in the early Asian session, but found support buyers within a key swing area and the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the December high at 1.0448 and 1.0461. Sellers turned to buyers and returned the price to the high from Friday at 1.05207. Move above that and a swing area between 1.0532 and 1.0543 becomes the target.
- USDJPY: The USDJPY moved higher in the Asian session but found willing sellers near a awing area at 155.94 and 156.219. Buyers turned to sellers and the price tumbled below the 38.2% of the move up from the December low and a swing area. All came between 154.77 and 154.939. Selling intensified on the break ith the price moving to the 50% of the same move at 153.736 where buyers have stalled the fall. Resistance at 154.47 now but the higher swing area at 154.77 to 154.939 is the key in the future, if the sellers are to remain in control.
- GBPUSD: The price action in the GBPUSD was a little less vs the EURUSD and the USDJPY. However, after first moving lower (USD higher), the pair reversed and moved above a technical swing area between 1.24739 and 1.2499. That area is now close support with the 61.8% of the move down from the December high at 1.25376 as the next upside target to get to and through to increase the bullish bias.
This week was going to be about earnings and the Fed, but the weekend news is worrying and puts those levels at risk. Nevertheless, Tesla, Meta, Microsoft (January 29) and Apple all report. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged with the focus on what they have to say.
Below is a list of the major releases this week:
Monday, January 27
Tuesday, January 28
- Boeing
- GM
- Lockheed Martin
- Starbucks
- SAP
- Stryker
Wednesday, January 29
- Progressive
- T-Mobile
- ADP
- General Dynamics
- Tesla
- Meta
- Microsoft
- IBM
- Lam Research
- ServiceNow
Thursday January 30
- UPS
- Mastercard
- Dow
- Nokia
- Southweat
- Caterpillar
- Comcast
- Apple
- Intel
- Visa
Friday, January 31
- ExxonMobile
- Chevron
- Colgate-Palmolive
- Phillips 66
Looking at the US debt markets yields are sharply lower:
- 2 year 4.201%, -7.0 basis points
- 5-year 4.33%, -9.3 basis points
- 10 year 4.528%, -9.3 basis points
- 30 year 4.768%, -8.1 basis points:
Looking at other markets:
- Crude oil is down -0.57 or -0.76% at $74.10
- Gold is down -8.88 or 0.032% at 2761.70
- Bitcoin is down -$1400 or -1.3% at $101,150.