JP Morgan has reaffirmed its baseline assumption that the United States will raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 60%, signalling expectations of further escalation in the ongoing trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies.
In its latest assessment, the investment bank stated that while it continues to anticipate an intensification of tariff measures, the outlook remains clouded by considerable uncertainty. “We maintain the view that the tariff war between China and the US is more likely to escalate from here,” JP Morgan noted, adding that the key unknowns lie in the timing, pace, and magnitude of any future tariff increases.
The bank highlighted that geopolitical tensions, domestic political developments in both countries, and the broader global economic landscape will play critical roles in shaping the next phase of the tariff dispute. Despite the expectation of further measures, JP Morgan cautioned that the path ahead remains highly unpredictable, with potential shifts depending on diplomatic negotiations and shifts in economic policy priorities on both sides.