It’s been a week! I can’t believe the Mexico/Canada tariff war was at the start of the week.
In any case, the first week of February ends today with non-farm payrolls. The consensus is +170K in a decline from +256K in December but there are some indications of a stronger number.
That said, eyes will also be on benchmark revisions, which should cut 650-700K jobs from the 2024 numbers. In addition, changes to the birth-death model could lead to a move in the unemployment rate.