There is one more economic released today. The New York Fed survey of consumer expectations will be released at the top of the hour. Last month showed:
Inflation Expectations:
- 1-year horizon: Unchanged at 3.0%.
- 3-year horizon: Increased to 3.0% (from 2.6%).
- 5-year horizon: Declined to 2.7% (from 2.9%).
Job Turnover Expectations:
- Probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased to 11.9% (-1.6 percentage points), the lowest since January 2024.
- Probability of voluntarily leaving one’s job fell to 18.2% (-2.0 percentage points), also the lowest since January 2024.
Job Finding Prospects:
- Perceived probability of finding a new job if unemployed dropped sharply to 50.2% (from 54.1%), the lowest since April 2021.
The University of Michigan consumer confidence report was released on Friday. Expectations moved lower with the one-year inflation expectations surging to 4.3% from 3.3% the prior month. That helped to push stocks lower.
US stocks are higher going into the report:
- S&P index is up 0.74%
- NASDAQ index is up 1.20%
Yields are lower with the two year yield down -2.7 basis points, and the 10 year yield down -2.1 basis points.