Fundamental
Overview
The Nasdaq sold off
yesterday following the higher than expected US CPI report. Stocks didn’t extend to new lows
though as the market was aware of the “January-effect” and therefore didn’t put
much weight on this particular release.
What weigh more on the
market were the positive headlines on the reciprocal tariffs as the White House
adviser Hassett said that the reciprocal tariffs were a work in
progress and conversations with other countries began earlier that day,
potentially implying negotiations.
Moreover, we got a very
positive post from Trump saying that he had a call with
Putin and the tone of it was upbeat on a peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine war.
He was even invited to Moscow. That helped the risk sentiment and weighed on
crude oil (less inflationary pressures).
Both of those news gave the
market a boost and helped erasing the CPI losses. Today, the focus will be on
the US PPI data and the potential announcement of reciprocal tariffs.
Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Nasdaq Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq has been stuck in a big range for three months now. The
market participants will continue to play the range until we get a breakout on
either side as that will likely increase the momentum and give us the next
impulse.
Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
Nasdaq 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action between the 21000 support and the 22111 resistance. The sellers will
likely step in again around the resistance to position for a drop back into the
support, while the buyers will look for a break higher to extend the rally into
the 22427 level next.
Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Nasdaq 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a tighter range between the 21448 support and the 21950
resistance. The sellers will likely continue to step in around the resistance
to target the support, while the buyers will look for a break higher to
position for new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we get the US PPI, the latest US
Jobless Claims figures and the Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement.
Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.