Fundamental
Overview
Yesterday, the US
PPI report came in higher than expected but the focus was on the details
that feed into the Core PCE index, which is what the Fed focuses on. Those details
were all very soft and helped to bring the early estimates down to more
benign levels.
In fact, the Core PCE Y/Y
is now projected to fall to 2.6% vs. 2.8% prior. That’s good news for the Fed. Real
yields and the US dollar fell as a result and provided a tailwind for gold to
push into new highs.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold continues to remain supported and it’s now close to making
another all-time high. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have
a better risk to reward setup around the 2790 level, while the sellers will
look for a break below the level to start targeting the 2600 level next.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
Gold 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a minor upward trendline defining the current
momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to
lean on it to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets
into the next trendline.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor support zone around the 2922 level. In case we get a
pullback, we can expect the buyers to step in around the support to position for
the rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will look
for a break lower to extend the pullback into the next support around the 2910
level. The red lines define the average daily range for today
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.