In my kickstart video, I highlighted the 1.0432 – 1.0441 zone as key topside resistance that buyers needed to break through to gain control. This area was defined by previous resistance and support levels dating back to early February. A sustained move above this zone would have opened the door for a test of the 100-hour moving average, which ultimately stalled the rally in early European trading.
Following the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. housing starts, EURUSD moved higher and tested the upper boundary of this swing area. However, sellers defended the level, leading to a rejection and a subsequent move lower over the past two hours.
The decline has now reached a major support zone, defined by the 200-hour moving average and the 50% midpoint of the broader trading range from the 2022 low, both converging at 1.0405. Just below, the 38.2% retracement of the February upswing sits at 1.0397, making this an important decision point.
A break below 1.0405 and 1.0397 would shift control further toward the sellers, increasing downside pressure. Conversely, if buyers step in at these levels, it could trigger a rotation higher, reaffirming the dip-buying strategy.
Technical Levels in Play:
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Support Levels:
- 200-hour moving average & 50% midpoint → 1.0405
- 38.2% retracement of February low → 1.0397
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Resistance Levels:
- Swing area ceiling → 1.0432 – 1.0441
- 100-hour moving average → Next upside target
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Key Trading Signals:
- Above 1.0405 & 1.0397 → Buyers may step in, targeting a reversal higher.
- Below 1.0405 & 1.0397 → Sellers take control, increasing downside momentum.