The USD is lower in early US trading with the USDJPY the biggest mover. In the video above, I take a look at the EURUSD, the USDJPY and the GBPUSD from a technical perspective:
EURUSD: The EURUSD declined yesterday, testing the 200-hour moving average and the 50% retracement level of the range since 2022 at 1.0405. Although this dual support was broken, the price remained near the 38.2% retracement of the February range at 1.03973. The failure to breach the 38.2% retracement suggests the sellers lacked momentum, while the buyers gained some confidence. In today’s trading, the price has moved higher, with the early high reaching 1.0453, which is close to the 100-hour moving average at 1.04585. This moving average also sits near the midpoint of a key swing area between 1.0453 and 1.0467. A break above these levels would strengthen the bullish bias.
USDJPY: The USDJPY saw significant movement after breaking below the double low at 150.92 from earlier this month, which opened the door for further selling. The price extended to 149.66. The next key target is the 50% retracement of the move from the September low to the January high, coming in at 149.22. Between this midpoint at 149.22 and the prior low at 150.92, there is limited support or resistance. Notably, the 200-period moving average on the 5-minute chart is at 150.486 and is moving lower. This could act as resistance after today’s sharp downward move.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD has been consolidating this week, fluctuating between a low of 1.2562 and a high of 1.2624. Within this range lies a swing area between 1.2596 and 1.26147. Also, the 38.2% retracement of the move from the September high to the January low sits at 1.26076. If the price stays above 1.2596, buyers are likely to remain in control, potentially pushing the pair toward the 100-day moving average at 1.2665. Conversely, if 1.2596 fails to hold as support, sellers may take control in the short term, with a potential move toward 1.2550.