- Services PMI 51.1 vs 50.8 expected vs. 50.8 prior
- Manufacturing PMI 46.4 vs 48.4 expected vs. 48.3 prior
- Composite PMI 50.5 vs 50.5 expected and 50.6 prior.
Key findings:
- Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index: 50.5 (Jan: 50.6).
2-month low. - Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index: 51.1
(Jan: 50.8). 2-month high. - Flash UK Manufacturing Output Index: 47.4 (Jan: 49.2).
2-month low. - Flash UK Manufacturing PMI: 46.4 (Jan: 48.3). 14-
month low
Comment:
Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson,
Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market
Intelligence said:
“Early PMI survey data for February indicate that
business activity remained largely stalled for a fourth
successive month, with job losses mounting amid falling
sales and rising costs.
“The lack of growth alongside rising price pressures
points to a stagflationary environment which will present
a growing dilemma for the Bank of England.
“While marginal output growth was eked out in February,
order books deteriorated at a rate not seen since August
2023 to hint at likely cuts to business activity in the
coming months unless demand revives.
“Firms’ costs are meanwhile rising at a rate not
witnessed since May 2023, the rate of inflation having
now accelerated for four straight months, putting further
upward pressure on selling prices for both goods and
services. The survey data point to a further rise in
inflation beyond the latest uptick to 3%.
“A key factor behind the upturn in inflationary pressures
is the growing number of firms reporting the need to
raise prices in order to help offset the impending rise in
staff costs associated with the National insurance hike
and uplift to the minimum wage announced in the
autumn Budget.
“However, companies also reported that the Budget
changes also played a major role in driving intensifying
job cuts. Employment fell sharply again in February,
dropping at a rate not seen since the global financial
crisis if pandemic months are excluded. One in three
companies reporting lower staffing levels directly linked
the reduction to policies announced in last October’s
Budget.”
UK Composite PMI