As the new week begins in the US/North America, the stock futures are implying higher levels, the US dollar has seen volatile price action with the greenback moving lower and then back higher. In the video above, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective.

US yields are higher, stock futures are implying a higher open after stocks fell last week. Overall the USD is mixed but little changed. The USDJPY is up 0.33% and the biggest mover of the major currencies vs the USD. The other pairs are mostly near unchanged after a volatile down and back up trading day so far:

Germany’s conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz is set to form a coalition government after his CDU/CSU bloc won 28.6% of the vote in the federal elections. The far-right AfD secured 20.8%, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) suffered their worst result since World War II at 16.4%, leading to expected leadership changes. Despite this, the SPD is likely to join a coalition with the Christian Democrats to secure a governing majority. The new government expected by late April.

However, Germany’s political landscape is complicated by AfD and the Linke party, whose combined parliamentary seats (34.3%) could block constitutional reforms requiring a two-thirds majority.

This week traders will be focused on Nvidia earning, US PCE (Tuesday), Europe CPI data, US consumer confidence and preliminary GDP

Nvidia Earnings Loom Large. Results will be announced on Wednesday.

• Nvidia set to report earnings on Wednesday after market close.
• Stock surged over 550% in two years amid AI investment boom.
• Investors watching Nvidia’s response to Chinese AI startup DeepSeek’s low-cost model and will also be sensitive to any signs of slowdown in the AI infrastruture boom .

U.S. PCE for January

• Key inflation gauge due Friday with core PCE expected at 0.3%. The core PCE is closely watched by the Federal Reserve.
• CPI data showed inflation above the Fed’s 2% target.
• Stubborn inflation dampens hopes for rate cuts in the US in 2024. Tariff threats are not helping either.

Germany, France CPIs Ahead. US consumer confidence and GDP

• Inflation data for Germany and France set for release Friday.
• Could influence ECB’s potential rate cut next month.
• ECB already cut rates four times, signaling further easing.
• Uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and defense spending clouds Eurozone outlook.

In other economic news this week:

• The Michigan consumer confidence data came in weaker last week. This week the Conference Board will release the data for their consumer confidence. The expectations are for a fall to 103.3 from 104.1 last month.
• Australia will release their CPI on Wednesday in Australia (at 10:30 PM on Tuesday in the US). The expectation is for a rise to 2.6% from 2.5%. Last week the RBA announced its first cut in 4-years with a 25 basis point cut. The RBNZ also announced a cut last week with a 50 basis point cut.

Geopolitics remains in a bright spotlight. This week France’s Macron and UK’s Starmer will be visitiing with Pres. Trump with Ukraine the focus. The European leaders were worried after Trump excluded Ukraine and Europe in peace talks with Russia, and called Ukraine President Zelenskiy a dictator. Trump wants Europe to back their own defense spending and wants Ukraine to payback the US.

Overnight, Ukraine and the US are reportedly in the final stages of negotiations on a minerals deal, with Ukraine committed to completing the agreement as quickly as possible. Zelenskiy stated that discussions are progressing well and that the initial draft proposed Ukraine returning two dollars for every dollar of aid provided by the US. He also clarified that the previously mentioned $500 billion deal is no longer being considered. A top aide described the latest round of talks as constructive. Additionally, reports suggest that the US could restrict Ukraine’s access to Starlink internet services over minerals, according to sources cited by Reuters.

The US stocks are implied to open higher according to the futures with:

• Dow up 275 points
• S&P up 32 points
• Nasdaq up 95 points

On Friday, the major indices fell and also fell for the trading week.

• Dow industrial average -748.63 points or -1.69% at 43428.02. For the trading week, the Dow fell -2.51% – the weakest since October 2024.
• S&P index fell -104.39 points or -1.71% at 6013.13.. For the trading week the index fell -1.66%. It’s worse trading week since January 6.
• NASDAQ index fell -438.36 points or -2.20% at 19524.01. For the trading week, the index fell -2.51%. It worst trading week since November 11
• Russell 2000 fell -66.39 points or -2.94% at 2195.34. For the trading week the index fell -3.71%. That was it trading week since December 16.

Apple CEO Cook met with Trump at the end of last week. Overnight, Apple announced a $500 billion investment in the U.S. over the next four years, its largest-ever commitment, supporting AI, silicon engineering, and workforce development. CEO Tim Cook emphasized Apple’s dedication to American innovation, stating, “We are bullish on the future of American innovation, and we’re proud to build on our long-standing U.S. investments with this $500 billion commitment to our country’s future.” The investment includes doubling Apple’s Advanced Manufacturing Fund and advancing technology in Texas.

In the US debt market today, yields are trading higher across the curve but off earlier high levels:

• 2 year 4.213%, up 2.1 basis points
• 5-year 4.277%, up 2.0 basis points
• 10-year 4.435%, up 1.5 basis points
• 30-year 4.685%, up 1.6 basis points

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