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USDJPY technicals
Weaker U.S. consumer confidence data aligns with last week’s lower Michigan sentiment index, pushing yields and the dollar lower. The two year yield is now down -8.2 basis points at 4.086%. The 10 year yield is down 10 basis points 4.2907%. Recall the high yield for the year reached 4.809%. So yields are now down 50 basis points from that peak.
The USDJPY is highly sensitive to yield movements, and has broken below the 50% retracement of its September 2024 rally, which stood at 149.221. The pair is also sliding further away from the 149.078–149.39 swing area, signaling increasing bearish momentum as sellers take control.
Staying below that 50% level keeps the sellers in firm control from a technical perspective. On the downside, the low price from December 2024 reached 148.642. The price of the pair is quickly moving toward that level. The low price just reached 148.69. Break below that level and the door opens for further selling momentum potential.
A swing area between 147.20 and 147.338 is a downside target (see thing yellow area near the middle of the chart above). Above that, a swing low from October 10 comes in at 148.64 and is a more modest target.
PS stocks are getting hit again. The Nasdaq which fell below the 100 day MA at 19210.91 is run, running away and trades at 18974 currently down -1.58%