All eyes are on Nvidia earnings after the bell today but a better reading on the underlying economy probably came from home improvement company Lowe’s today. Shares are up 2.5% on modest beats on revenues and earnings but that comes after an 18% decline since the October highs.
Sentiment is poor around anything related to US housing because of persistently high rates. There has been some relief lately with US 10-year yields down 50 bps from the January peak to 4.29% today but with mortgage rates still at 6.8%, it’s a struggling sector.
So it was the 2025 Lowe’s guidance that caught my eye with the company forecasting comp same store sales expected to be flat to up +1% this year. That’s after a 3.1% decline in revenues in FY2024.
On the flip side, comp stores in the quarter rose 0.2% q/q, breaking an eight-quarter losing streak. Home Depot earlier in the week also reported a small lift.
“We’ve likely reached the bottom of housing turnover at about 3% of units. But we’re not expecting a big rebound, nor significant increases in new housing start,” said Home Depot CEO Edward Decker.
There are other part of the economy — particularly AI — that are driving growth but it’s a two-track economy.
Lowe’s daily