- Prior was 45.0
Key findings:
- HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI at 46.5 (Jan: 45.0). 25-month high.
- HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 48.9 (Jan: 46.3). 9-month high.
- Sharp and accelerated decline in employment
Comment:
Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:
“The recession in German industry may come to an end in the coming months. In particular, incoming orders, which have
fallen again but more slowly than at any time since April 2022, are a source of hope. The same applies to the order backlog.
The recession in production has weakened significantly within two months. In the intermediate goods sector output even
grew again, while in the other key sector of capital goods, production has come close to stabilizing. This points to the
possibility of an early recovery overall. At this point in time, however, a great deal of caution is still called for, as it is still
unclear whether the upward trend in global industrial activity will continue.
“Job cuts have accelerated sharply of late. Companies have been reducing their headcount month after month since mid-
2023. However, with the stabilization of production that is becoming apparent, it is possible that companies will gradually
change tack and that the downsizing measures will come to an end in the coming months.
“Demand remains weak. Although there are signs of a stabilization in the order situation, the fact that supplier delivery times
shortened in February is an indication of the spare production and transport capacity in the economy. Furthermore, the
inventory cycle hasn’t turned around yet – both finished products and purchased inputs are still seeing reductions.
“The outlook for the future is looking positive, though not as bright as at the beginning of the year. A lot will depend on how
quickly a new government is formed and how bold their economic plans will be. To truly turn things around, we’ll need a solid
investment plan to modernize public infrastructure and sustainably improve conditions in Germany.”
Germany Manufacturing PMI