Tesla’s first-quarter delivery outlook is under renewed scrutiny, with UBS revising its forecast down to 367,000 units, a sharp cut from its previous 437,000 estimate issued after Q4 2024 results. The new projection reflects a 5% year-over-year decline and a steep 26% drop quarter-over-quarter, coming in 13% below Visible Alpha consensus expectations.
While a late-quarter push—potentially driven by promotional efforts—could provide some upside, UBS points to softer demand signals as a key concern. Evidence Lab data indicates short wait times of around two weeks for the Model 3 and Model Y in key markets, suggesting that Tesla is not struggling with production bottlenecks but rather a demand slowdown.
These signs of cooling interest add to a growing debate over Tesla’s near-term growth trajectory. Investors will be closely watching for any last-minute sales incentives or pricing adjustments that could help the automaker salvage its quarter.
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Musk is distracted by his government job, both SpaceX and Tesla are suffering: