On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price has bounced from the 33000 level and rallied towards the red
long period moving
average. This is where the sellers are likely to lean on looking for more
downside and targeting the 32684 support. The price action overall
remains messy as the market remains uncertain on the future path of the economy
and interest rates.
Recent economic data has been
beating expectations and prompted the Fed officials to acknowledge that in case
the data keeps on improving, they might raise interest rates again at the June
meeting. This week, we also got positive news on the debt
ceiling front which boosted the market and triggered a rally.
On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that due to the choppy nature of the recent price action, there’s not much
to glean from the chart. We have some interesting levels though where the price
reacted the most. On the upside, the 33850 resistance keeps the bearish bias
intact as it’s the last lower high of the recent downtrend. The buyers are
likely targeting that level at the moment, and if they manage to breakout, we
should see 34477 next.
On the downside, we have the
33000 support that stalled the recent fall. In between, we have the 33545
level that is likely to act as a barometer for the sentiment where the bias
turns bearish if the price falls below it and bullish if the price stays above
it.
In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the recent breakout of the 33545 level is diverging with the MACD. This is generally a sign of
weakening momentum and it’s often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In
this case, we may see a pullback to the broken 33545 level where we can also
find the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level and the red long period moving average for confluence.
The buyers are likely to lean on
that level with a defined risk just below it, while the sellers will want to
see the price to break below it to pile in and target the 33000 support. The big event to watch today is Fed Chair Powell speech. He’s
expected to reiterate his comments at the last FOMC press conference but watch
out for more hawkish or dovish comments as those can trigger big moves.