On the
daily chart below, we can see that GBPUSD has made a big pullback in the past
few days. The biggest rally was made in the last two days as some Fed officials have hinted to a
pause in June to gather more data before deciding on a further
increase. The USD came under pressure across the board as a consequence and
yesterday’s soft ISM Manufacturing PMI and Unit Labour Costs didn’t
help.
The price
is now getting rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and if the
price starts to fall from here, we may form a Head and Shoulders pattern
which would have the 1.2300 as neckline and 1.2000 as target. Moreover, the divergence between
the 1.2444 and 1.2700 tops with the MACD suggests
that we may indeed continue lower.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis
GBPUSD Daily
On the 4
hour chart below, we can see more closely the recent strong rally in GBPUSD and
the rejection at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. If we look left, the
price was diverging with the MACD falling into a previous swing level at
1.2350, so we already had some signals of weakening momentum. Generally, what
happens next is a pullback or a reversal. Which one will this be will be
decided by the next set of data starting today with the US NFP.
GBPUSD 4 hour
On the 1
hour chart below, we can see that we have a minor lower low support at
1.2518 where there’s also the red 21 moving average that can
give some extra support. The buyers can do two things here:
- Wait for the price to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at
1.2540 and go with the flow. - Wait for the price to pull back into the 1.2450
area where there’s the support from the trendline and the
1.2450 level and pile in there with a better risk to reward setup.
The
sellers, on the other hand, can take the two opposite strategies:
- Pile in here at the 1.2540 resistance zone with a
defined risk just above the level and target the breakout of the trendline and
new lows. - Wait for the price to break below the trendline and
the 1.2450 support and only then pile in and extend the fall into new lows.
GBPUSD 1 hour
Today, all eyes will be on
the US NFP report and there are different scenarios that might play out:
- If
the data is better than expected coupled with higher-than-expected average
hourly earnings, it should increase market odds for a June rate hike and even
price some for a July hike. This scenario, in fact, might raise concerns within
the market regarding a potential wage price spiral. - Conversely,
if the data is good but falls short of expectations in terms of average hourly
earnings, it should weaken the USD further as it shouldn’t change rates pricing
much and the market will look forward to the CPI report next week - If
the data miss expectations across the board, it should be perceived as negative
news and may even cause some risk aversion in the markets with the USD getting
bid. However, given recent Fed officials’ comments, we may see the USD
weakening based on less interest rates hikes expectations.