I’ve posted previews of the RBA earlier. The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting is today here in Asia, Tuesday June 6:
- statement is due at 2.30 pm Sydney time, which is 0430 GMT and 12.30am US Eastern time
And Greg has the AUD techs here:
The below is via the folks at eFX.
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- Bank of America (BofA) anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain the cash rate at 3.85% in its upcoming policy decision on Tuesday, June 6, following an unexpected 25bp hike in May. However, the bank also signals that another rate increase can’t be ruled out given the RBA’s increasing concern over the slower-than-anticipated return of inflation to target levels.
According to BofA, the case for additional rate hikes is strengthening, possibly as early as the July meeting, especially if May’s monthly CPI print indicates a worryingly slow decline in inflation. The bank also highlights the crucial role of China sentiment for the AUD outlook.- Despite domestic factors, like the potential for further RBA tightening, supporting the Australian dollar marginally, bearish sentiment around China’s growth may limit AUD rallies in the short term.
In the medium term, BofA remains constructive towards the AUD. However, they note that significant recovery will require broader policy easing in China. They highlight the importance of China’s property sector and service imports for Australia’s economy, and suggest that recent reports of China preparing new measures to support the property market have likely boosted AUD performance. The bank adds that an increase in flight capacity should contribute to the growth of Australia’s service sector over time.
RBA current cash rate