The RBA is continuing their streak of being rather unconventional and at this point, perhaps not very predictable as well. The “big four” banks in Australia all had the central bank pinned for not changing the cash rate today but policymakers saw otherwise, and raised it by another 25 bps to 4.10% here.
The Australian dollar has benefited from that in a push to a high of 0.6670 as traders digest the decision. The 200-day moving average (blue line) is a key resistance level to note on the latest push higher:
AUD/USD daily chart
As you can see, buyers held the line at daily support around 0.6500 and are now staying in the hunt for a fourth straight day of gains.
That said, the upside for the aussie might be rather limited despite the RBA surprise. Traders are still seeing a roughly similar peak in the cash rate this year and the RBA decision just sort of brings that forward rather than changed the outlook for a higher peak.
That could mean AUD/USD struggling to break key resistance from its 100-day moving average (red line) again, seen at 0.6746 currently. And if anything else, the April and May highs near 0.6800 will likely put a stop to any major upside momentum in the pair; all else being equal.