The market is feeling increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve is near the end of the hiking cycle and that the economy isn’t headed for a hard landing.
With that, the VIX traded down to 13.9 today, which broke the July 2021 post-pandemic low of 14.1.
VIX weekly
Perhaps that’s a sign of complacency but I think it’s more likely a sign of a market that can’t find anything to worry about. The debt ceiling was a big dose of nothing and even if the Fed hikes, it’s near the end of the line. Maybe inflation proves to be stubborn or China’s economy tumbles but the market will need to see real signs of trouble before it blinks.