Rising long-end US yields helped to drive USD/JPY to a fresh high for the year and above a notable resistance level. The pair is up 36 pips today and touched 142.45 in a quick spike high on broad USD buying.
It’s worth zooming out on the chart here because it highlights the important levels in play. The 142.24 level was the November 2022 high, which was a decent retracement after the post-intervention/CPI-peak fall. It’s also close to the 61.8% retracement of the drop at the turn of the year.
Arguably, if USD/JPY can get through these levels, it’s on a clear path back to the 150 zone.
A big risk around the thesis of a higher USD/JPY is the possibility (likelihood?) that the Bank of Japan will have to abandon yield curve control. CPI is creeping up; and while the Bank of Japan insists there is disinflation in the pipeline, a falling currency won’t help.
Japan CPI ex food and energy
Traders should also consider the possibility of a slump in risk assets. Any kind of flight to safety due to recession or market fears would weigh on USD/JPY and boost the yen broadly. Central bankers have grown surprisingly aggressive in the past month and that boosts the chances of a 2024 recession. If the market senses storm clouds ahead, then there could be pain in USD/JPY.
Notably though, the first two weeks of July represent the best two weeks of the year to own stocks and that should be a tailwind for USD/JPY.