If you feel like EUR/USD trading this year has been something of an afterthought, you might be onto something.
We’re almost at the halfway point of the year and the range so far has been 1.0516-1.1095 — a range of just 579 pips. We’ve tested the top and the bottom of the range but the pair isn’t ready to break out as ECB monetary policy keeps pace with the Fed.
Lately, some storm clouds are brewing over the German economy but I don’t see a great fundamental break in this pair until a central bank pivots.
How does the narrow range compare? Deutsche Bank today crunched the numbers and noted that the range so far this year is the second-narrowest since the 1999 birth of the euro. The median at this time of year is around 10 big figures and the median for the calendar year is 17.
The one year that was even quieter was 2019 and that was followed by some dramatic moves in the two years that followed. Another year that started out quietly was 2014 but that changed in the second half of the year on the taper tantrum and the ECB dropping rates into negative territory.
Deutsche Bank ultimately expects the euro to break out to the upside on US dollar weakness based on a late-year Fed pivot.