It’s Independence Day in the US and That will keep a lid on markets once Europe files out.
The holiday has cleared the US economic calendar but it’s not a holiday in Canada, which returns from its own long weekend today. That leaves the S&P Global Canadian manufacturing PMI as the lone item on the calendar. There’s no consensus estimate but the prior was 49.0.
Canada is in an interesting spot today after the RBA left rates unchanged at 4.10%. The implied odds of a BOC hike are down to 54% from 65% last week in this copy-cat world of central banking. The decision is on July 12 and I’ve been outspoken that a hike is unwise.
Despite the falling chance of a hike, USD/CAD is lower today as oil prices climb 1.8%.