- Orders up in 5 of the past 6 months
- Prior was +0.4% (revised to +0.3%)
- Ex transport -0.5% vs -0.2% prior (revised to -0.6%)
Revisions to durable goods:
- Durable goods orders +1.8% versus +1.7% preliminary. Last month +1.2%
- Durable goods ex-defense +3.0% versus +3.0% preliminary. Last month +-0.5%
- Durable goods ex-transportation +0.7% vs +0.6% preliminary. Last month -0.6%
- Nondefense capital goods ex-air +0.7% vs +0.7% preliminary. Last month -0.2% (revised to -0.6%)
It looks like the defense orders were particularly soft here, which is a timing issue rather than a sign of economic weakness. Still, note the downward revisions to the prior nondefense capital goods ex-air report, which is notable.
Overall, we know that manufacturing is soft due to the bullwhip effect so these numbers aren’t a huge disappointment. On the inventory side, it looks like it will be a drag again in Q2.