The USDJPY is trading within a narrow trading range, but sellers are making a play to the downside in early US trading with the price moving below its 200-hour moving average. The last time the price broke below the 200-hour moving average was back on June 14. Since then the price has trended up from 139.62 up to a high reached last Friday at 145.066.
The modest correction off the high is not totally convincing for the sellers (or buyers for that matter). However, if the price can stay below the 200-hour moving average NOW, that is a step in the bearish direction at least in the short term. Other support targets, at 143.86 and 143.445 would give sellers more confidence. The 38.2% retracement of the move up from the June 1 low comes in at 142.528 (see chart below) and would ultimately be a target that sellers would need to break if they are to take back even more control from the buyers.
If the break below the 200-hour moving average fails, getting back above the 100 hour moving average of 144.55 and a downward sloping trendline at 144.68 and the high today at 144.73 would be targeted.
USDJPY tries to break the 200 hour MA
Fundamentally, central-bank policy favors USDJPY buying, but technicals can take control in the short term at least. Getting and staying below the 200-hour moving average is a key barometer for both buyers and sellers from a technical perspective.